12 Days of Picksmas

The Stock Market has been going down. Do not get confused, whatever it is called - correction or bear or anything in between. Stocks go down a lot every few years and that is the price of admission.

This is when stocks are returned to their rightful owners. Speculators get wiped out. Investors without a plan sell out. Advisors and funds without discipline get fired.

All of those sources of forced liquidations hand over valuable shares to families with rock solid balance sheets and cash reserves, to take complete advantage of greed turning to fear.

We build clear and balanced plans with sell disciplines capable of surviving, and then thriving through all market cycles. We are tied together by a belief system, and hold each other accountable in our partnerships with the families we work for. And, we write it all down.

Equally as important as the math we have stress-tested, is the resulting peace of mind that should allow you to never worry about what the crowds think, because you know.

We never get distracted by any number of potential Gold Rushes each and every year, including the fool’s gold of calling market tops or bottoms. One thing we noticed that all the winners and the losers have in common:

Gold Rush.JPG

The store supplying the pick-axes on the outside of town was the most profitable venture of them all.

Over the last 12 trading days the Stock Market has dropped in price by almost 12%. Over the next 12 days you will see fearless forecasts about what to expect in 2019 and beyond!

I will be over in the corner humming our un-seasonal smash hit “On the 12th Day of Picksmas our true loves gave to you…”

These are not spectacular picks with game-changing technology like other forecasts. They are perfectly boring pick-axes designed as game un-changers, capable of standing the test of time so much better.

‘Tis (always) the season to predict a few of the following will happen in our homes as we gather:

Turkey or ham? Or something brownish from an aunt you’re worried about how long it was in the car. You will have seasoning on hand for all the above.

A less extravagant lunch will be prepared going forward. You will supply turkey or ham sandwiches on any of the other 364 days of the year.

There will be weather where you are. You installed the air conditioner and heater.

Almost as safe a bet as weather, is a home improvement conversation at some point with an extended family member. You sell supplies to the ones who know what they are doing, and also the other ones.

No matter who has the nicest or worst car out front, both have to buy auto parts from you.

Imagine all the grandkids, nephews or nieces (not yours, others) we should be worried about as first time drivers. You collect those expensive insurance premiums.

Deep breath…yes, they are staring at a smartphone. If you do decide to break one open to discuss eye contact, you will find your semiconductor chips inside.

At some point you may overhear “I’m in cash” guy, typically an ungroomed uncle. Just smile, and keep moving, you are banking him and collecting a huge interest margin.

Surely, at least one in-law will bathe before coming over. Right? Be grateful, and not just because you make the hot water heaters.

Speaking of which, would you like a beer or wine? You sell both.

Or, water? You got that covered too.

Finally, I predict you saw a delivery man with a box this week. And, also all weeks leading up to this week, and then after this week.

Those 12 pick-axes saw their prices decline over the past 12 days and may go much lower, like any other stock. Their businesses were uninterrupted. The average age of each company is 104 years old, for a lot of good reasons. You know they are making a lot of money because they share the profits by paying you a dividend.

But, what has been happening lately in the markets??!! And, how can you ever know what is real and what is not?

You have been given a pay RAISE this year of 15% MORE in dividends over the past 12 months as stakeholders in those 12 pick-axes. How unusual is a pay-raise like that? The average streak of their increases is 35 years and counting, right through every kind of market cycle. No matter what they call it, you know what is real and what will last.